Report Compiled: 2020-05-03

Johns Hopkins Repo Commit: fae8335 Max Data Date: 2020-05-02

NYT Repo Commit: b2676ab Max Data Date: 2020-05-02

This is an automatically generated report containing analyses of the COVID-19 epidemic in Iowa and elsewhere. All models under consideration here are stochastic SEIR compartmental models, fit using Approximate Bayesian Computation using the ABSEIR software for R. Source code available upon request. Questions should be directed to grant-brown@uiowa.edu

There are two general classes of model:

  1. Models which use a single location of mortality data to estimate the epidemic curves
  2. Models which are used to provide informative prior information about the epidemic in Iowa, based on analyses of other locations.

In both cases, we have to make assumptions about the shape of the underlying contact distributions. Namely, can we assume that contact in each location shifted within one week of governmental action, or is the shape of the curve more complex. With that in mind, we look at both types of models. In addition, for the State of Iowa, we consider whether or not it is most reasonable to assume that intervention efforts began on 3-17-2020 or 4-4-2020, which correspond to the emergency declaration and the official closing of schools.

** A huge array of models are presented in this document, and they are not reviewed by our team of experts before posting to this page. Some of these are guaranteed to be inadequate or misleading if interpreted by themselves. These results should be considered raw material for follow-up reporting, investigation, and decision-making.**

R0 Summaries: Single Location Analyses

Mortality Estimates: Single Location Analyses

Here, we present the compared results of analyses of the COVID-19 outbreak in a number of locations. We begin by comparing the estimated posterior distribution of mortality rates in each location.

Model Fit: Single Location Analyses

In the following tabbed sections, we present diverse output from the single location models, including projections over time of the following important quantities:

Illinois

Washington

Minnesota

Iowa (3-17)

Iowa (4-4)

Illinois (Spline Model)

Washington (Spline Model)

Minnesota (Spline Model)

Iowa (3-17, Spline Model)

Iowa (4-4, Spline Model)

Iowa Specific Projections

In the following sections, we apply the estimated intervention intensity from the previous analyses to the situation in Iowa, with the hope that by borrowing information from other locations we can improve the precision of our projections.

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Illinois - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Washington - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-03-17

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Iowa Analysis Based on: Minnesota - Intervention Term Applied 2020-04-4

[1] “Done with R0sim” [1] “Done with R0sim”

Table of projected mortality by model/assumption

Mortality As Of: Training Location Intervention Date Model Type 10th Percentile 50th Percentile 90th Percentile
2020-06-13 Illinois 04-04-2020 Shift 367.2781 595.8868 1122.9395
2020-06-13 Illinois 04-04-2020 Spline 435.1705 751.0952 1387.0605
2020-06-13 Illinois 03-17-2020 Shift 750.3971 1221.8922 2764.9998
2020-06-13 Illinois 03-17-2020 Spline 543.1163 1339.5505 3698.9295
2020-06-13 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 265.8694 687.5512 7176.8305
2020-06-13 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 649.8257 1816.8431 8951.8781
2020-06-13 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 804.9209 1584.0707 4026.9747
2020-06-13 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 651.5253 1531.7112 4062.3517
2020-06-13 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Shift 342.2414 630.9029 1460.1951
2020-06-13 Minnesota 04-04-2020 Spline 446.9528 890.2421 2528.5736
2020-06-13 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Shift 604.7583 1127.9626 2700.2636
2020-06-13 Minnesota 03-17-2020 Spline 509.7686 1458.5272 4804.1220
2020-06-13 Washington 04-04-2020 Shift 255.3237 422.5085 620.7288
2020-06-13 Washington 04-04-2020 Spline 321.5686 535.3356 821.5874
2020-06-13 Washington 03-17-2020 Shift 588.7440 1023.9760 1885.8841
2020-06-13 Washington 03-17-2020 Spline 362.8954 732.6687 2667.2153
2020-05-17 Iowa 04-04-2020 Shift 212.1389 307.5307 526.6021
2020-05-17 Iowa 04-04-2020 Spline 275.1297 387.9118 634.9138
2020-05-17 Iowa 03-17-2020 Shift 276.5118 386.0194 534.2215
2020-05-17 Iowa 03-17-2020 Spline 282.3607 367.2070 496.5942